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If you have been following what is going on in the various financial
markets, you already know things have been pretty crazy and if you
have an account traded with Galleon you may have witnessed a good size draw
down over the last few weeks as well.
The core of our currently implemented strategies are predominately
trending strategies which from our trading experience as well as back
testing hang in there at least 80% of the time. What we've recently
experienced is market conditions better described as choppy, whip
sawing and counter trending with no clear sustaining trends. Conditions no exactly favorable to the core of our currently trading strategies.
In anticipation of such times, we have
actually been perfecting some counter trending strategies that are
performing phenomenal on a new pair we'll be introducing, which is the cross pair, EUR/CHF.
Left alone our current predominantly trending strategies will recover
but with the help of the additional counter trend strategies expected
to be implemented by Monday August 13th, we should see an even faster
recovery.
But, before we go farther with our solutions to our current situation, let's
back up a bit and explain in more detail what we've been witnessing in
the currency markets.
Current market conditions, somewhat typical of the middle of summer
are choppy and range bound, with the EURUSD moving from from 1.3600 to
1.3850.
That being said, the current summer draw down has been instructive. It
pointed out to us to that we needed to add strategies to our current
mix that can profit from the whipsaws of the market.
Up till now we had been focusing on the primary European currencies,
EUR/USD and USD/CHF, and our strategies on these two pair have been
predominately trend-based.
Yet when we looked at the cross-pair of the above two currencies, the
EUR/CHF, we noticed that a good counter-trend strategy can profit from
the predominate sideways (or whipsaw) nature of this market.
It was thus that we developed two very powerful counter-trend
strategies that can profit from sideways market conditions, entering in
at an oversold/overbought point in the market and capturing profit
based on the range of the last 30 bars. We noticed that these can
profitably be applied to the EUR/CHF on 3 time frames: 240 minute, 960
minute and Daily. We have the outstanding results based on 17 years
back testing (1990 to present).
If these strategies were applied to a 75K account since 1990, it would
have grown approximately 2M in profit (non-compounding), or 130%
additional yearly return, on these strategies alone (not including the
strategies we have already). Applied to the last four months, our
managed fund would have profited 35% (see monthly returns in the report
below). It would have provided a 18% profit in July and August alone,
which would have effectively taken us out of our current drawdown.
Below you will see the hypothedical results from Jan 2007 up until the
first week of August. As you will see, these strategies alone, could
have not only kept us out of a draw down, but actually put us into profit
potentially each of the last 3 months.
Results of New EUR/CHF Counter Trend Strategies being implemented as of Monday, Aug 13th 2007
Counter Trend Strategies
It is also worth noting that
during this entire 2007 period these strategies do not contribute to
any significant losses either. So, the net affect from adding these strategies to
the mix of current ones should only bring us more profit, protection and
smooths our our equity curves even further.
Hypothetical Results are no guarantee of future performace but using such back testing to validate our strategies has proved very accurate in forward testing.
If this this model continues to hold up, when applied to the previous 17 years, these new counter trending strategies would have produced the returns you see below. This is based on a $75,000 account which is not compounding.
In conclusion, we expect there be some draw down months like we have recently experienced, but what sets Galleon apart from all the rest is how we continue to learn and improve on our systems, and with each improvement comes the potential for better overall performance as we go forward. Our systems are designed for the long term and draw downs such as we recently experienced give us chances to improve things even more. We are very excited to be implementing these new complimentary strategies as we see them being an integral part of a quick recovery if the market choppiness continues.
A summary of all statistical data from these new counter trending strategies is now included below. You can also download the full PDF with more details here.
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